The AI Buildout Trail

This is a game. You are running an AI buildout from 2026 to 2037 — twenty rounds to build enough compute to matter.

It is The Oregon Trail with datacenters. Choose your pace, spend your money, deal with the drought and the protest and the regulator. Twelve endings. One of them is good.

Play the trail → Twenty rounds, 2026–2037. Build the compute, keep the town, stay solvent. Twelve endings.

How to play

The goal

Build 200 units of compute in 20 rounds — 2026 to 2037 — and still be able to defend how you did it. Arriving is the easy half.

A round is three decisions

  1. How hard do you push? Careful (+10 compute, $35M, the town stays with you) · Steady (+15, $60M, a fair trade on every front) · Breakneck (+23, $100M, burns water, power, goodwill and people). Careful alone will not get you to 200 in 20 rounds. That is the squeeze the whole game runs on.
  2. Where does the money go? Three options a round, always including something for your weakest stat. Fix the watershed, buy clean power, fund an outside red team, hire ahead of the crunch — or take on debt, or spend nothing.
  3. Something happens. A drought, a protest, a regulator, an offer you shouldn't take. Thirty-five events, never repeating, weighted toward whatever you have been neglecting. At fixed compute thresholds you hit a landmark instead — a bigger decision with a longer shadow.

What you're carrying

Watershedthe river you cool with
Clean gridthe power you draw
Public trustwhether the town agrees
Alignmentwhether you understand it
Teamthe people building it

All five run 0–100, and any one of them hitting zero ends the run on the spot. You also carry capital, debt and compute — compute is the distance bar, and it earns revenue, more of it when trust is high.

What counts as winning

PillarPasses when
Ethicalalignment ≥ 65, trust ≥ 65, corners cut ≤ 3
Environmentalwatershed ≥ 60 and clean grid ≥ 60
Fiscally sounddebt ≤ $300M and capital not negative
Arrivedcompute reached 200

You need all four at once. There is no partial credit. Three of four is the normal outcome — it gets you a survival ending that names the pillar you dropped and what it cost. All four, plus a team still standing, is the only route to THE LONG FUTURE, and it is one of twelve endings.

The ideal

Careful and steady pace. Money into the weakest thing rather than the most exciting thing. Debt kept low enough that it never compounds against you. Play like that and the good ending is reliable, not lucky — which is the argument the game exists to make.

The less ideal

Watch for two things

A dividend means a pillar got high enough to pay you back, and the screen names which one.

A margin call fires once at debt over $700M or capital under −$250M, and it rescues you by force-selling compute — it costs you the thing you are racing for. Bankruptcy is −$500M.

Read the paper → Part I: what happened, 2022–2026, every claim tagged documented, estimate or contested. Part II: five futures.